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Jonathan Rochford

The Coming High Yield Downturn will be Big, Long and Ugly

May 30, 2018 by Jonathan Rochford

Coming High Yield Downturn

The US high yield market has grown larger and riskier since the financial crisis. More debt, of lower quality, with weaker covenants means the coming downturn will be bigger, longer and uglier.

Filed Under: Money Tagged With: bonds, Loan Market, Loans, US High Yield

How ASIC Can Become a Feared Regulator

April 28, 2018 by Jonathan Rochford

Corporate Skycrapers

The behaviour of AMP exposed by the Royal Commission shows that it had no fear of ASIC. Here’s how ASIC can change this.

Filed Under: Australia Tagged With: ASIC, Banking Royal Commission, Regulation

Credit Snapshots – April 2018

April 28, 2018 by Jonathan Rochford

Credit Shapshots

Covenant Lite You know it’s late in the credit cycle when credit investors give away their key protections in return for just a little more yield. This acquiesce comes in different forms, including higher levels of leverage, longer dated debt, subordinated debt and weakened or eliminated covenants commonly referred to as “covenant lite”. This risk […]

Filed Under: Credit Tagged With: Anbang Bailout, Covenant Lite, Credit Snapshots, High Yield Defaults

The Economics of Population Growth

April 1, 2018 by Jonathan Rochford

Graph showing population growth

This article discusses both the obvious and the unseen implications of population growth, with the aim of allowing all Australians and particularly our leaders to consider whether a bigger Australia is better.

Filed Under: Economics Tagged With: Economic Growth, Employment, Housing Affordability, Population Growth

Credit Snapshots – March 2018

April 1, 2018 by Jonathan Rochford

Credit Shapshots

Bite size updates on the Libor spike, Toy’s R Us, franking credit changes and the Banking Royal Commission

Filed Under: Credit Tagged With: Banking Royal Commission, Franking, Libor, Liquidation, U.S. Dollar

Credit Snapshots – February 2018

February 28, 2018 by Jonathan Rochford

Credit Shapshots

Bite size updates on US government debt, Chinese margin lending and bank capital

Filed Under: Credit Tagged With: Snapshots

Short Volatility is a Legitimate Investment Strategy

February 26, 2018 by Jonathan Rochford

Market downturn

The criticism of short volatility strategies in the wake of the recent VIX spike is misguided and uniformed. If correctly managed, short volatility strategies have a history of producing outsized returns.

Filed Under: Investment Tagged With: Investment Strategy, Short Volatility, VIX

IMF on China: A Downturn is Inevitable

January 25, 2018 by Jonathan Rochford

Map of China

A recent paper from the IMF concludes that China may be able to continue its current trajectory for the medium term but in the long term a downturn, likely accompanied by a banking crisis is inevitable.

Filed Under: China Tagged With: China, Downturn, IMF

Credit Snapshots

December 6, 2017 by Jonathan Rochford

Credit Shapshots

Bite size updates on high yield spreads, Puerto Rico, Venezuela and China.

Filed Under: Credit Tagged With: High Yield Spreads, Snapshots

Investors Should Loiter Around the Lifeboats

December 6, 2017 by Jonathan Rochford

Lifeboat

Investors are facing a similar conundrum to a person onboard the Titanic’s maiden voyage who knows how the journey will end. The correct response to the risk ahead is to loiter around the lifeboats in credit and equity investments.

Filed Under: Investment Tagged With: Asset Classes, Investment

If Australian Politicians Cared About Housing Affordability Here’s What They Would Do

November 16, 2017 by Jonathan Rochford

housing

If Australian politicians care about housing affordability and the quality of life of Australians, they will quit talking and start implementing these eight obvious and needed changes.

Filed Under: Australia Tagged With: Affordability, Housing

Four Lessons from Toys R Us and Puerto Rico’s Defaults

October 17, 2017 by Jonathan Rochford

Toys 'R' Us

The defaults by Toys R Us and Puerto Rico were remarkably similar, even though corporate debt and sovereign debt are quite different. This article highlights three lessons that can be taken from both and one lesson that highlights a key difference between corporate and sovereign debt.

Filed Under: Lending Tagged With: Bankruptcy

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