Virgin’s downfall is another example of how the predominantly retail buyer base has long struggled to recognise the risks of hybrid securities.
Memos
Virgin is Better Off Going Through Insolvency
Without going into insolvency soon, Virgin Australia risks going the way of Ansett and being sold off for scrap.
A Chance to Reset in Debt
For those that seek out the illiquidity premium, this is a rare opportunity to increase your prospective return whilst decreasing the risk of long-term capital loss.
A Green Light for Corporate Theft
The changes to insolvency protections will allow the weakest business to accrue liabilities and inflict greater losses on their employees and suppliers.
Central Banks Spawned this Crisis
From 2012-2019 central banks should have been unwinding stimulus, but instead they increased it and created a bubble in financial markets and the economy.
More Write-downs and Forced Sales are Likely
As asset valuations are gradually updated, more forced sales and fund lock-ups are likely.
A Virtue Signalling Rate Cut
The RBA’s decision to cut rates on March 4th seems more about appearances than cold economic logic.
Investors are Chasing “Bargains” in Turnarounds and Cyclicals
In the search for an apparent bargain, turnaround stories and cyclical companies are attracting far more capital and attention than they otherwise would.