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Jonathan Rochford

Where are we at in the credit cycle and how should investors respond?

February 10, 2014 by Jonathan Rochford

This article defines the four phases of the credit cycle, then details how investors should position credit portfolios to profit from coming phases.

Filed Under: Credit Tagged With: Credit Cycle

Does Australia have a House Price Bubble and are RMBS at Risk?

October 26, 2013 by Jonathan Rochford

The question of whether Australian house prices are excessive is increasingly being asked. This article briefly reviews the theory and history of housing bubbles, before analysing Australian house prices and what impact a bubble could have on Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (RMBS).

Filed Under: Credit Tagged With: Australian house price bubble, price bubble, risk, RMBS, US house price bubble

All the Hallmarks of a Credit Bubble in China

July 22, 2013 by Jonathan Rochford

In the lead up to previous credit crises, six indicators have pointed to the impending danger. This article analyses how China benchmarks against these indicators and concludes that China is highly likely to be heading towards a credit crisis and substantial economic downturn.

Filed Under: China Tagged With: China, Credit Bubble

Making Basel 3 Better: Cost Efficient Improvements that Will Reduce the Frequency and Costs of Bank Failures

February 27, 2013 by Jonathan Rochford

The Basel 3 bank reforms were proposed as a response to the problems of 2007-2009, with the changes intended to substantially lessen the likelihood of another round of global bank bailouts. This article examines the key reforms and puts forward an alternative view of what will best protect taxpayers from bearing the costs of future bank bailouts.

Filed Under: Credit

Five Banking and Investment Lessons from the London Whale Incident

February 15, 2013 by Jonathan Rochford

JP Morgan’s internal report on the losses incurred by the so called “London Whale” provides a unique insight into the risk culture of a large investment bank. This article summarises the significant events covered in the report and details five key lessons for investors and regulators.

Filed Under: Ethics

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