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Recent Memos
Too much cash can create a crisis
Financial markets are delirious with stimulus and won’t stop partying until there’s a crash so big that central banks can’t effect a bail out
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More cracks are appearing in Chinese credit
The misplaced confidence of Chinese credit investors has been shaken by the default of three state owned entities including one rated “AAA”
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What’s the endgame for government and central bank stimulus?
Governments and central banks have embarked on a journey with no clear idea of where they are going, here’s five ways it could end
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Welcome to the zombie global economy
The number of zombie companies is growing and current policy settings point to this trend worsening in the years ahead
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The leveraged loan market has gone feral
Lenders have responded to a wave of distressed companies and the cancer of weak covenants by going feral on each other
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The end finally appears near for NABHA holders
The announcement that NAB is preparing to call NABHA securities is good news for holders, but it is a reminder of common myths about hybrids
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A double win for the major banks
The Federal Government has handed the Australian major banks two big wins over their non-bank competitors
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If It’s Unsustainable, It Will Eventually End
Governments, corporates and households with excessive spending and debt are living on borrowed time.
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Be Cynical On Government Debt
It’s relatively easy and common for politicians to walk away from a financial mess, which makes corporate and personal debt a better investment than government debt.
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There’s a reason emerging markets look cheap
Emerging markets are cheaper than developed markets for good reason, with three recent examples highlighting commonly ignored risks.
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Company directors: if you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen
Company directors hold themselves out as experts, but are increasingly demanding protection from the consequences when they fail to act reasonably.
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Is Anyone Crazy Enough to Lend to Argentina?
Argentina is a deadbeat borrower that will probably default again, but there’s a high probability lenders will be back anyway
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